Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke’s recent indictment on conspiracy and bribery charges, coupled with nationwide frustration over President Donald Trump’s war with Iran and tariffs that have been blamed for rising consumer costs in the U.S., could influence Saturday’s party primary elections in Hawaii by discouraging — or energizing — people to actually vote.

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Luke announced in April that she would not seek reelection after the state Department of the Attorney General notified her she was a target of a bribery and corruption scandal that led to her indictment July 24.

While few local Republicans are publicly denouncing Trump’s policies, they are using Luke’s indictment as an opportunity to channel ongoing GOP complaints about the dominance of Democrats in local politics. They see Luke’s criminal case — as well as the indictments of former state Rep. Ryan Yamane and three others — as further evidence of what they say is the need for a true competitive two-party system in Hawaii.

“I would definitely say it sparks more of a fire under me,” said Rocklin Youngstrom, the 22-year-old president of the Hawaii Young Republicans. She is running against Daniel Gabriel in the GOP primary election for the state House seat held by Rep. Amy Perruso (D, Wahiawa-Whitmore Village-Mokuleia). “The younger generation, especially, want people in office that we know are going to do the right thing and serve the people, not donors. It’s very disheartening to see that our lieutenant governor failed all of us.”

State Rep. Diamond Garcia, the House Republican minority floor leader who is running for reelection to represent Ewa-Kapolei, believes the indictments could increase the Republican presence in both the House and Senate, especially for West Oahu districts.

During the 2026 session, only 10 of 51 House members and three of 25 senators were Republican.

Their numbers grew in the Legislature following the 2022 corruption scandal in which former Senate Majority Leader J. Kalani English and then-Rep. Ty J.K. Cullen, both Democrats, pleaded guilty to federal charges and were sentenced to federal prison.

Their cases are now linked to the state attorney general’s indictments of Luke, Yamane and the other defendants because the allegations go back to a 2022 private dinner between Luke and two donors that Cullen attended and secretly recorded as an FBI informant.

“In some ways, it could depress turnout because of deep cynicism that reinforces this standard belief that the system is broadly untrustworthy,” Garcia said. “… More West Oahu and rural areas who feel disenfranchised by government will end up voting Republican, and I think you’ll see our caucus hold and even increase numbers this election.”

In the 2022 midterm primary elections, only 39.8% of all 853,874 registered voters actually cast ballots.

Voter interest then fell in the 2024 primary, a presidential election year, when only 32.3% of Hawaii’s 839,618 registered voters actually voted.

Makai Freitas, chair of the Democratic Party of Hawaii, agrees the recent indictments may inspire more Republican voters to turn out to support GOP candidates.

But unlike English and Cullen, who pleaded guilty and went to prison, Freitas noted that “no one’s been convicted. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and start condemning people before they go through the legal process.”

Among Democrats, Freitas said, “I’ve not heard anybody saying, ‘I’m not going to participate in this voting now.’”

Amelia Sofos, 20, will be a junior at the University of Hawaii in the fall and was elected two weeks ago to a one-year term as national president of College Democrats of America.

“The current political climate might inspire some Republican voters to turn out,” Sofos said. “However, because it is the primary there aren’t a lot of Republican primary races.”

She said young Democrats “across the country and in Hawaii do feel disillusioned by bribery scandals and corruption.” According to Sofos, they are especially frustrated with older, moderate Democrats who face no term limits in the Legislature, the only elected state, county or federal elected office in Hawaii without term limits.

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“Young Democrats want progressive candidates,” Sofos said. “We have some really good grassroots candidates, but they don’t have big-money support. People want candidates to say ‘no’ to PAC (political action committee) money. A lot of young people are tuned out because they don’t see these really young candidates and progressives. We want to make sure we’re being heard.”

The overwhelming majority of voters in Hawaii vote by mail. In the 2024 primary, 266,362 voters voted by mail compared to only 4,983 who voted in person.

Trump continues to insist, without evidence, that his 2020 loss to President Joe Biden was “rigged” as he pushes Congress to further restrict voting across the country.

In 2016, he told voters to reject mail-in ballots and early in-person voting and encouraged his supporters to instead cast ballots in person and only on Election Day.

While small in number, Hawaii voters who stood in line on Election Day in 2016 delayed the release of election returns for hours, just as they did again in 2020 when Trump lost to Biden and again in 2024 when Trump won a second term.

Hawaii law requires anyone in line by the 7 p.m. election night deadline to be given the chance to vote, and even register to vote, which further delays the release of vote totals for all races across the state.

The pending conspiracy and bribery scandal likely will again inspire Hawaii Republicans to line up nearing the 7 p.m. close of polls, Garcia said. He estimated that “90% of those who vote in person on Election Day are pretty much Republicans.”

Shirlene Ostrov, chair of the Hawaii Republican Party, wrote in a text to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that the recent public corruption indictments “are a stark reminder of why we need leaders who answer to the people, not to entrenched political insiders! … We encourage every eligible voter, regardless of party, to learn the issues, show up, and make their voice heard at the ballot box. No vote … no grumble!!!”

Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at UH, expects voter turnout in Saturday’s primary to be less than 40%, similar to participation in the 2022 and 2024 primary elections.

“But we do have a competitive 1st Congressional District race now and the open (lieutenant governor’s) contest and county and legislative races,” he said.

Luke’s indictment, in addition to overall frustration over the U.S. economy, “in some ways could depress turnout because of cynicism that reinforces this standard belief that the system is broadly untrustworthy,” Moore said.

While isle Republicans are pointing to Luke’s indictment as a reason to inspire its voting base, Moore said Hawaii Democrats “are by far the most energized, although President Trump isn’t on the ballot. There are a lot of Democrats who are deeply frustrated with U.S. politics. And this is the only way they can participate right now.”

So together, disillusionment over Luke’s indictment, the persistent high cost of living and the ongoing war in Iran have the combined potential to drive voter turnout by Saturday’s voting deadline, according to Moore.

“In Hawaii, the Republican Party is the antiestablishment party,” he said. “These indictments have been seen as yet another condemnation of the political class, which is mainly Democrats.”

At the same time, he said, “young Democratic progressives are skeptical of the status quo of the Hawaii Democratic Party, as well.”

And voters of both parties “are frustrated by the cost of housing and overall affordability,” he said.

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“Anger is a powerful motivator” for voters of all stripes, Moore added.