Hawaii residents entering, or shifting within, the local labor force over the next several years are expected to have good opportunities but not as many as previously forecast, according to a new state analysis.

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The state Department of Labor and Industrial Relations recently published a report projecting statewide employment growth by industry through 2034, including an assessment of the best sectors for employment based on different levels of education achieved by job seekers.

Overall, the top five best opportunities include jobs for registered nurses, carpenters and bartenders. On the other hand, industries where jobs are expected to contract include retail, agriculture, finance and real estate.

DLIR’s report projects that employment in Hawaii will expand by 4.1% from 2024 to 2034, increasing the statewide job count by 28,060 from 693,280 to 721,340 that represents meager annual growth.

“Hawaii’s labor market is entering a decade of slow, cautious expansion,” DLIR officials said in the report. “While we project a net gain of over 28,000 jobs, the annual growth rate is restricted to a sluggish 0.4% due to significant economic headwinds.”

The agency noted its projected growth rate outpaces a comparable 3.1% rate for the nation, but also represents a downward revision for Hawaii job growth it forecast two years ago at 6.1% in a report for 2022 to 2032.

DLIR officials also estimated that there will be roughly 82,070 job openings each year in Hawaii from 2024 to 2034, of which 53% is expected to be from workers changing occupations, 43% from workers leaving the labor force, and 4.1% from the projected net increase in jobs.

This roughly 96% percent of annual projected job openings stemming from replacement needs as workers change occupations or leave the workforce is a staggering statistic, according to DLIR.

“In sharp contrast, true economic expansion is expected to generate only an estimated 2,800 brand-new jobs annually,” the report said.

Lists of the best job opportunities expected in Hawaii through 2034 varied by the level of education of job seekers. For job seekers without a high-school diploma or better, bartending was the best opportunity with a projected 640 annual openings, a median wage of $76,490 and short on-the-job training.

At the other end of the spectrum tied to education level, physical therapist was the best job opportunity for job seekers with a doctorate or professional degree, given 60 projected annual openings, a median wage of $101,700 and no required work experience or job training.

Without regard to education of a job seeker, a list of the 10 best opportunities in DLIR’s report was topped by the job of general manager or operations manager with 1,110 projected annual openings and a median wage of $108,180. That was followed by registered nursing with 830 annual openings and a $136,320 median wage.

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Rounding out the top five on this list were general maintenance and repair workers with 820 annual openings and a $57,960 median wage, carpenters with 640 annual openings and a $85,280 median wage, and bartenders with 640 annual openings and a $76,490 median wage.

Generally, industries where the most jobs are expected to be added from 2024 to 2034 are led by the health care and social assistance sector with 11.2% growth representing 8,860 more jobs driven by the elderly becoming a greater share of the state’s population, followed by the hotel and motel sector with 7% growth representing 2,750 more jobs after factoring in a softer‑than‑anticipated recovery in international visitor arrivals.

DLIR’s report notes that public officials and employers face a “critical structural challenge” finding enough qualified personnel to meet the expected demand for health care and social assistance employment.

Other sectors forecast for job growth of at least 5% include self employment, construction, transportation and warehousing, food serv­ices and the category of arts, entertainment and recreation.

Out of 22 industries, DLIR expects the number of jobs to get smaller in four — retail, agriculture, finance and real estate.

The report projects an 8.8% contraction for the agriculture sector, which includes fishing and forestry, representing 490 fewer jobs primarily due to evolving land-use priorities, high overhead costs and persistent labor supply constraints.

A 1.3% job reduction is forecast for finance and insurance representing 200 jobs, which DLIR said stems from digital banking consolidation and artificial intelligence tool use.

For retail, a 0.9% decline representing the loss of 600 jobs is expected due in part to growing e-commerce and automated self-checkout systems that reduce storefront personnel needs.

The smallest decline is projected for real estate at 0.7% representing 80 jobs, which the report said reflects a stabilizing market experiencing increased digital automation in property listings and leasing operations.

“Industry assessments from the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism and the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization indicate that these downturns are driven by permanent technological and operational shifts rather than temporary economic cycles,” the report said.

DLIR said its projections can be a valuable tool for students, advisers, providers of job training and education, employers and policymakers. The agency’s work resulting in the report was funded by a $320,385 grant from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration.

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The report can be found at 808ne.ws/45DVA9e.