UPDATE: Lala still forecast to make landfall on Big Island as a hurricane
UPDATED 6 p.m.
A hurricane warning remains active today for Hawaii County, where dangerous hurricane conditions are forecast to hit Saturday.
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A tropical storm warning is now in effect for all other islands, including Oahu, Kauai, Niihau, Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.
At 5 p.m., Lala’s maximum sustained winds were holding at 65 mph with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening remains forecast, and Lala is still expected to reach hurricane strength as its core nears the Big Island’s southern tip Saturday before tracking south of the smaller islands Sunday.
Peak wind forecasts on the Big Island range from 40 to 75 mph, with gusts reaching up to 85 mph in Kona, Big Island Southeast and Big Island interior. Tropical storm conditions across other island zones carry peak wind forecasts ranging between 25 and 50 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph.
Heavy rainfall continues to present a major threat across the island chain, creating serious risks for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Peak rainfall estimates reach up to 12 to 18 inches in Big Island East and 10 to 15 inches in Big Island Southeast, with up to 25 inches possible overall on the Big Island.
Localized storm surge inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level remains possible in surge-prone coastal areas on the Big Island through early Monday, with up to 2 feet of surge possible for other affected coastal zones.
UPDATED 3:25 p.m.
Tropical Storm Lala strengthened slightly to 65 mph maximum sustained winds as it pushed toward Hawaii today, with forecasters warning that hurricane conditions are still expected Saturday on the Big Island.
At 2 p.m., Lala was located about 275 miles east-southeast of South Point on the Big Island and 475 miles southeast of Honolulu, moving west-northwest at 14 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles from the center.
High surf warnings remain active for east-facing shores of the Big Island and Maui, where surf is projected to reach 15 to 20 feet and 10 to 15 feet, respectively, on Saturday.
A high surf advisory is also in effect for east-facing shores of Kauai from Saturday morning through Saturday night, as medium-period swells generated by Lala build rapidly across the western end of the island chain.
Peak storm surge along Hawaii Island coastal areas is expected to reach 1 to 3 feet during high tide, accompanied by large waves and overwash.
Rainfall forecasts remain unchanged, with 8 to 12 inches expected across the Big Island and localized totals up to 25 inches.
UPDATED 12:13 p.m.
Tropical Storm Lala is still forecast to strengthen as it approaches Hawaii, with the latest forecast calling for hurricane conditions on the Big Island on Saturday and damaging tropical-storm-force winds, potentially beginning there tonight.
At 11 a.m., Lala had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was about 340 miles east-southeast of South Point on the Big Island and 535 miles east-southwest of Honolulu, moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 195 miles from the center, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
The CPHC said steady strengthening is expected, with the storm forecast to become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island.
The model trends and latest guidance now support a landfall on the Big Island on Saturday. After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday.
Once it interacts with land, Lala is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm and an increase in shear, associated with an upper-level low, could also contribute to weakening later in the weekend.
The National Weather Service says damaging tropical-storm-force winds could begin affecting parts of the Big Island tonight, with tropical storm-force winds reaching Maui County Saturday morning and potentially affecting the rest of the state later Saturday into Sunday. Winds could be considerably stronger over mountains and windward and leeward slopes.
The latest local forecasts underscore the potential for dangerous conditions on the Big Island. In the Kona area, peak winds are forecast at 55 mph to 70 mph with gusts up to 85 mph, while parts of the Big Island’s southern and southeastern areas face similar potential for hurricane-force winds.
Heavy rain remains a major concern. The NWS is forecasting 10 to 15 inches in windward areas of the Big Island, 8 to 12 inches in windward Maui and up to 8 inches across the remainder of the island chain, with the heaviest rainfall currently favored over the Big Island and parts of Maui.
The agency warns that even leeward areas face a significant flood risk.
Forecasters also warn that Lala’s swells will spread westward across the state, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Very large and extremely rough seas are expected to increase rapidly on Saturday and Sunday, with the potential for damaging surf, beach erosion and overwash of vulnerable coastal infrastructure, particularly on the Big Island.
The latest NWS local assessment also identifies a potential for a few tornadoes in parts of the Big Island during the storm, although the overall threat is limited.
Residents should continue monitoring the latest watches and warnings and complete preparations before dangerous winds arrive.
UPDATED 11:12 a.m.
Hawaii County is closing all of its parks and solid waste facilities on Saturday as Tropical Storm Lala continues to strengthen as it approaches Hawaii Island.
All Hele-On bus routes and Paratransit services will be cancelled on Saturday and Sunday.
Lala is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the island early Saturday morning.
Read more Tropical Storm Lala is expected to become a hurricane Saturday
The county is urging residents to complete their preparations now and plan for sheltering and staying off roadways during the storm.
“With this storm we are facing a significant risk of damaging winds and flash flooding, and we encourage all of our residents and visitors to prioritize their safety,” Mayor Kimo Alameda said this morning in a statement. “Complete your storm preparations today, including securing your home, ensure you have access to safe shelter, and check on neighbors who may need assistance.”
Alameda signed an emergency proclamation this morning, which allows the county to streamline its response and coordinate resources.
UPDATED 8 a.m.
Tropical Storm Lala is getting better organized and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches Hawaii Island, with dangerous conditions beginning as early as today.
As of 8 a.m. today, Lala had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was about 365 miles east-southeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles north of the center, according to CPHC forecasters.
The storm is expected to pass near Hawaii Island on Saturday before tracking south of the smaller islands on Sunday.
Oahu and Kauai are both under tropical storm watches, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 to 48 hours. Maui County remains under a tropical storm warning, while Hawaii Island is under a hurricane warning.
The National Weather Service said damaging tropical-storm-force winds could begin affecting parts of Hawaii Island as early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach Maui County on Saturday and could affect Oahu and Kauai later Saturday into Sunday.
Forecasters are calling for 8 to 12 inches across Hawaii Island and Maui, with localized maximums of 25 inches possible on Hawaii Island. The NWS says 10 to 15 inches could fall in windward and upslope areas of Hawaii Island, with up to 25 inches possible in localized areas.
Flood watches are in effect for Hawaii Island and Maui County beginning this evening, and for Oahu, Kauai and Niihau beginning Saturday evening. Forecasters warn that heavy rain could trigger flash flooding and rapidly rising streams, including in areas away from the storm’s center.
Surf conditions are also expected to deteriorate rapidly. A high surf warning takes effect at 6 p.m. today for the east-facing shores of Hawaii Island and Maui. The NWS expects Big Island surf to rise from 8 to 12 feet tonight to 15 to 20 feet Saturday, while Maui could see surf increase from 7 to 10 feet tonight to 10 to 15 feet on Satuday.
The storm is also expected to bring increasingly rough marine conditions, heavy rain, low visibility and strong winds across the islands.
Fire danger remains elevated today before Lala’s tropical moisture arrives, as strengthening tradewinds combine with dry conditions. NWS forecasters said wildfire concerns should diminish as Lala brings increasing humidity and rainfall beginning Saturday.
PREVIOUSLY
Tropical Storm Lala maintained its strength overnight and is on track to move over, or just south of, Hawaii Island Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane, then pass further south of the rest of the state over the weekend.
The Big Island remains under a hurricane warning.
Hawaii Island and Maui are also under a flood watch from this evening through late Saturday night and Sunday, while Kauai and Oahu under the watch from Saturday evening to Sunday night.
At 5 a.m., Lala had 60 mph maximum sustained winds and was centered 420 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 635 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles north of the center, according to CPHC forecasters.
“Steady strengthening is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island,” they said.
The latest five-day track has Lala as a minimal hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and higher gusts, passing over or just south of the Big Island on Saturday afternoon, then moving further south of the smaller islands through the weekend ass a strong tropical storm.
State and county officials warn the public to get ready for significant and dangerous weather impacts, starting today on Hawaii Island.
The hurricane center said hazards from the storm include:
— Wind: “Hurricane conditions are expected on the Big Island Saturday, with tropical storm conditions expected in Maui County Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Oahu and Kauai Counties on Sunday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of slopes and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.”
— Rain: “Tropical Storm Lala is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches across Maui and the Big Island, with maximum totals of 25 inches possible across the Big Island. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches is expected across the remainder of the island chain. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.”
— Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. “The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.”
— Waves: “Swells generated by Lala are expected to reach the east-facing shores of the state today, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
“Lala will bring heavy rain to the state, especially Big Island and Maui, beginning Friday evening and likely extending through Saturday night,” forecasters said. “At this time, amounts of 10 to 15 inches are possible over upslope/windward areas of Big Island, with 8 to 12 inches over upslope/windward areas of Maui. Higher localized amounts are possible, up to 25 inches on Big Island and up to 15 inches on Maui.”
Hawaii County officials announced a list of emergency shelters that they plan to open at 6 p.m. today before the worst of the storm hits the island Saturday. They are:
— Hisaoka Gym in North Kohala
— Waikoloa Elementary School Cafeteria, Waikoloa Village
— Kahilu Town Hall, Waimea
— Honokaa Armory, Honokaa
— Laupahoehoe Charter School Band Room, Laupahoehoe
— Waiakea High School Gymnasium, Hilo
— Keaau Armory, Keaau
— Pahoa Community Center, Pahoa
— Pahala Gymnasium, Pahala
— Naalehu Elementary School Gymnasium, Naalehu
— Yano Hall, Captain Cook
— Kealakehe High School Gymnasium, Kailua-Kona
Anyone using the shelters should bring their own personal and sleeping supplies, officials said. All Hawaii County public transportation buses routes are canceled Saturday and Sunday.
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