Hurricane Nolo strengthens into a Category-2 storm as it approaches Big Island
UPDATED 11:55 a.m.
Although Hurricane Nolo has held steady in intensity since mid-morning, forecasters raised their outlook for how strong the storm could ultimately become, now projecting Nolo could reach 145 mph, Category 4 strength, by early Monday before weakening.
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At 11 a.m., Nolo was centered about 175 miles south of South Point, packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and moving north-northeast at 5 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Forecasters said Nolo’s wind field has grown, with tropical-storm-force winds now extending up to 140 miles from the center, up from 115 miles earlier today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from Nolo’s center.
The storm’s track has also come into slightly sharper focus. Nolo is expected to slow and begin drifting west later tonight, then accelerate westward Saturday and Sunday as a building ridge north of the islands takes over as the main steering influence, before likely turning north-northwest early next week, according to the National Weather Service.
CPHC forecasters cautioned that Nolo could end up even stronger than the official forecast within the next two to three days, given the current upper-level wind pattern, though weakening is still expected by days four and five.
No watches or warnings changed with the 11 a.m. advisory.
Forecasters reiterated that the time to finish preparations for heavy rain and flooding on the Big Island “is now,” as rain is expected to increase in both coverage and intensity later today, with periods of heavy rain continuing across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend.
UPDATED 9 a.m.
Hurricane Nolo strengthened into a Category 2 storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 105 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data showed Nolo’s winds had increased from 85 mph in the previous advisory. At 8:35 a.m., the storm was centered about 185 miles south of South Point and 380 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, moving north-northeast at 5 mph.
PREVIOUSLY
Hurricane Nolo grew stronger overnight as it continued its march toward the Big Island, where it is expected to bring damaging winds, dangerous surf and life-threatening flooding through the weekend.
At 5 a.m., Nolo was packing maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and centered about 210 miles south of South Point. It was moving north-northeast at 5 mph.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles from Nolo’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 115 miles, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
“A turn toward the west-northwest and west with an increase in forward speed is forecast Saturday and Sunday,” forecasters said. “On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will remain well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.”
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A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning remain in effect for Hawaii County. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 24 to 36 hours, while a tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are possible within 24 to 36 hours.
The Big Island is expected to see tropical storm conditions beginning tonight, with hurricane conditions possible by early Saturday, particularly in areas of steep terrain, according to the CPHC. Nolo is forecast to strengthen further and become a major hurricane this weekend.
The National Weather Service said heavy rain is expected to increase across the Big Island today, with the greatest threat of flooding on windward and southeastern slopes. A flood watch remains in effect through Saturday afternoon for the Big Island.
Up to 10 to 15 inches of rain is forecast for the eastern and southern portions of the island, with isolated amounts reaching 25 inches, the CPHC said. Western portions of the island could receive 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches.
The rainfall could cause catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain. The National Weather Service warned that additional rain could cause significant problems in southeastern areas of the Big Island that have already been saturated by recent rainfall.
Maui is forecast to receive 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches. The rest of the state could see 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches and localized flooding possible.
The CPHC urged residents to complete preparations for heavy rain and flooding now and to follow instructions from local officials, including evacuation orders.
Nolo also is expected to bring dangerous coastal conditions. A storm surge — an abnormal rise in seawater pushed toward shore by a storm — could raise water levels 1 to 3 feet above ground along parts of the Big Island’s coast, particularly if the surge coincides with high tide.
Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east- and south-facing shores of the Big Island today, spreading westward and building through the weekend. The waves could create life-threatening surf and strong rip currents.
A high surf advisory remains in effect for east- and southeast-facing shores of the Big Island through 6 p.m. Saturday.
