{"id":103,"date":"2026-05-16T10:35:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T10:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103"},"modified":"2026-05-16T10:35:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T10:35:10","slug":"higher-oil-prices-hurting-hawaiis-economy-uhero-report-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103","title":{"rendered":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n

Hawaii\u2019s near-term economic outlook \u201chas worsened noticeably\u201d as the war with Iran continues to push oil and consumer prices higher, according to the latest economic forecast by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, released Friday.<\/p>\n

Read more Two Hilo beach parks closed due to shark sighting<\/a><\/p>\n

In its second-quarter forecast titled \u201cWar brings more stormy weather to Hawaii,\u201d UHERO said the state\u2019s economy \u201cis facing a new wave of uncertainty as the war involving Iran drives up global oil prices, increasing costs for consumers, raising travel expenses and slowing growth in key visitor markets\u201d that support the local economy.<\/p>\n

\n
\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The report downplayed the possibility of a Hawaii recession, but UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham said it remains a possibility if oil prices continue to rise or remain high.<\/p>\n

He called the high energy costs a \u201ctax on businesses\u201d and also a tax on consumers, who pay more for energy, which affects their spending on \u201ceating out or buying clothes or buying school supplies or even food.\u201d<\/p>\n

Elevated short- and long-term interest rates continue to help curb inflation and Bonham expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates relatively unchanged for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe longer this goes on, the more inflation expectations go up and higher interest rates will stay,\u201d he said. \u201cThis compares to just three or four months ago where most people were thinking that interest rates were going to be coming down. They were sort of looking forward to the Fed cutting rates in the second half of this year and long-term rates would come down sort of gradually.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, Bonham expects long-term rates are \u201clikely to stay elevated for the next several years,\u201d which will continue to depress housing sales.<\/p>\n

The U.S. Senate on Thursday confirmed President Donald Trump\u2019s nominee Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n

Speculation continues over whether Warsh will maintain the Fed\u2019s independence or give in to demands from Trump, who repeatedly threatened Powell\u2019s job and a pushed a Justice Department investigation after the Fed chair refused to lower interest rates.<\/p>\n

Typically, the Fed keeps interest rates high as a curb on inflation, Bonham said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they were to cut rates, I think it would actually make things worse,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Read more Funds allocated for Waimea emergency center<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cThis goes back to Powell\u2019s argument about why they weren\u2019t cutting rates a year ago, because it\u2019s much more impactful if they can stabilize inflation as opposed to trying to stimulate the economy or do whatever is politically expedient by lowering rates.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou lower rates in the very short term and it creates more problems in the middle, medium and long run.\u201d<\/p>\n

Inside the Federal Open Market Committee that makes recommendations on whether the Fed should lower or increase interest rates, Bonham suspects the committee would prefer to raise rates rather than lower them to serve as a check on inflation.<\/p>\n

Other factors affecting Hawaii\u2019s short-term outlook, UHERO said, include the two Kona-low storms in March that were followed by a third heavy rainstorm and caused huge economic hardship for the state and many of its residents, while also hurting tourism.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe visitor industry entered 2026 with some momentum, before the March storms caused a sharp drop in passenger counts,\u201d according to the forecast. \u201cUnderlying conditions are now deteriorating. Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled, pushing transpacific fares up 20-25% and prompting some airline capacity cuts.<\/p>\n

\u201cCanadian arrivals continue to slide, and Japanese visitors face the weakest yen purchasing power in decades. <\/p>\n

\u201cOn the strength of the year\u2019s first months, total arrivals will post roughly 2% growth for 2026. They will slow over the course of the year and average just 0.2% growth in 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n

High oil prices are also affecting the cost of construction, one of the few continuing bright spots of Hawaii\u2019s economy. The higher prices impact construction materials that are shipped to the islands, while raising travel costs for construction workers, especially those commuting across islands to work on projects, UHERO said.<\/p>\n

Overall, the forecast said, \u201cThe typical Hawaii household faces roughly $100 per month in additional energy costs.\u201d<\/p>\n

UHERO expects inflation on Oahu to average 4% but peak in the summer at 4.8%. Inflation should continue running above normal trends in Hawaii until 2028, according to its forecast.\n<\/p>\n

Read more Strong field takes on Aronimink\u2019s bunker-filled challenge at PGA Championship<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says – Hawaii News | Hawaii Tribune-Herald<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nHigher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Moving to Hawaii Guide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Moving to Hawaii Guide\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Hawaii News | Hawaii Tribune-Herald\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Moving to Hawaii Guide\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-16T10:35:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"760\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"538\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/aab134479722ebfc548519f5ae92ff84\"},\"headline\":\"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-16T10:35:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103\"},\"wordCount\":743,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103\",\"name\":\"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Moving to Hawaii Guide\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-16T10:35:10+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/aab134479722ebfc548519f5ae92ff84\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp\",\"width\":760,\"height\":538},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?p=103#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"Moving to Hawaii Guide\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/aab134479722ebfc548519f5ae92ff84\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Moving to Hawaii Guide","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Moving to Hawaii Guide","og_description":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Hawaii News | Hawaii Tribune-Herald","og_url":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103","og_site_name":"Moving to Hawaii Guide","article_published_time":"2026-05-16T10:35:10+00:00","og_image":[{"width":760,"height":538,"url":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/#\/schema\/person\/aab134479722ebfc548519f5ae92ff84"},"headline":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says","datePublished":"2026-05-16T10:35:10+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103"},"wordCount":743,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp","articleSection":["News"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103","url":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103","name":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says - Moving to Hawaii Guide","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp","datePublished":"2026-05-16T10:35:10+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/#\/schema\/person\/aab134479722ebfc548519f5ae92ff84"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp","contentUrl":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/c8e32dc9a7858c8751c6601e46ab7583.webp","width":760,"height":538},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=103#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Higher oil prices hurting Hawaii\u2019s economy, UHERO report says"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/","name":"Moving to Hawaii Guide","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/#\/schema\/person\/aab134479722ebfc548519f5ae92ff84","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com"],"url":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}