{"id":211,"date":"2026-05-22T10:05:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-22T10:05:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=211"},"modified":"2026-05-22T10:05:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-22T10:05:59","slug":"very-busy-hurricane-season-forecast-for-central-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=211","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Very busy\u2019 hurricane season forecast for Central Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Be prepared for an unusually active and intense hurricane season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Be prepared for an unusually active and intense hurricane season.<\/p>\n

That was the message delivered Thursday by Gov. Josh Green, the National Weather Service, and state and county emergency managers.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWe\u2019re expecting a very busy hurricane season here in the Central Pacific \u2014 five to 13 cyclones. An average year for us is four to five,\u201d NWS meteorologist John Bravender said during a press conference in Green\u2019s office at the state capitol in Honolulu.<\/p>\n

Bravender said a predicted El Nino \u2014 a weather phenomenon caused by warmer than normal equatorial waters in the Pacific \u2014 is a main driver of the forecast for robust cyclonic activity during hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.<\/p>\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association\u2019s Climate Prediction Center last week forecast that an El Nino cycle had an 82% chance of occurring between May and July and a 96% chance of continuing through December to February.<\/p>\n

El Nino doesn\u2019t guarantee the development of tropical cyclones \u2014 which include hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions \u2014 but does increase the odds of they\u2019ll happen. And the the forecast of five to 13 cyclones in the waters around Hawaii isn\u2019t a prediction of landfall by any of the potential storms, although that could occur.<\/p>\n

Bravender attributed the wide range in the potential number of storms to uncertainty about \u201chow quickly those warmer El Nino conditions develop over the summer and how they impact our hurricane season.\u201d<\/p>\n

He noted that most tropical cyclones migrate west to the Central Pacific basin \u2014 the borders of which are 140 degrees longitude in the east and the International Date Line in the west.<\/p>\n

\u201cNormally, we have one or two develop in the Central Pacific. Most move in from the east,\u201d Bravender elaborated. \u201cIn 2015, half of them developed within our basin, so that could lead to less \u2026 time for us to prepare. That\u2019s why you need to take this opportunity now.\u201d<\/p>\n

The prediction of increased hurricane activity also extends to the Eastern Pacific, with the potential for 15 to 22 named storms, which would also increase the possibility of more tropical cyclones approaching the islands.<\/p>\n

Noting disastrous rainfall on the Big Island from Hurricane Lane in 2018 and the deadly 2023 Maui wildfire sparked by winds produced by Hurricane Dora, Green proclaimed that Hawaii residents have a \u201ckuleana to be ready.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen in recent years how quickly things can change in just a few hours \u2026 and preparation can never be understated,\u201d Green said. \u201cOur geography makes preparedness even more important, because we are the most isolated populated land mass on the planet here. And if we ever had a severe hurricane come and take out our harbor, we would be on our own for a while.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Green thanked the Legislature for appropriating $175 million after two destructive Kona low storms in March, saying it\u2019s \u201cenough to get us through the hump until the federal dollars come in.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201dThey also gave us $100 million in the budget, that I will sign in a couple of weeks as we head towards the deadline,\u201d he said. \u201cThe $100 million is a flex account, so if there are a lot of storms, which we anticipated for this year, we will not have to go back into session.\u201d<\/p>\n

Army Maj. Gen. Stephen Logan, the state\u2019s adjutant general and director of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, said the state\u2019s and counties\u2019 emergency management agencies recently held their annual disaster preparedness and hurricane response exercise, Makani Pahili \u2014 which translates to \u201cstrong wind\u201d or \u201churricane.\u201d<\/p>\n

Logan also urged residents to shore up their own preparedness.<\/p>\n

\u201cPlan for what is difficult while it is easy. Do what is great while it is small,\u201d Logan said, a quote attributed to Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, author of \u201cThe Art of War.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt starts with a plan,\u201d echoed Talmadge Magno, the Hawaii County Civil Defense administrator. \u201cWe all need a plan. It takes quite an effort to put a plan together, but we all have that information, already, in our heads.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSo, in your plan, you have to consider your vulnerabilities,\u201d he continued. \u201cEach person\u2019s vulnerabilities are different \u2014 depending where you work, live or play \u2014 based upon the hazards that (Logan) pointed out. The surge, the dangerous waves, surf, the high winds and the rain. How do those hazards make you vulnerable in where you live, work and play?\u201d<\/p>\n

Magno said potential hazards for residents include evacuation routes being cut off by fallen trees or flooded roads.<\/p>\n

All the speakers, Magno included, said residents should have a disaster kit with 14 days of nonperishable food, potable water, medications, pet food, flashlight, portable radio, batteries and other necessities. He advised those seeking more info to visit either county Civil Defense\u2019s or HIEMA\u2019s web pages for details.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have, on our websites, information that\u2019ll help you put together a plan. Also, we have templates that you just fill in the blanks that\u2019ll put the plan together for you,\u201d Magno said.<\/p>\n

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Email John Burnett at john.burnett@hawaiitribune-herald.com.\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018Very busy\u2019 hurricane season forecast for Central Pacific – Hawaii News | Hawaii Tribune-Herald<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-211","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018Very busy\u2019 hurricane season forecast for Central Pacific - Moving to Hawaii Guide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=211\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018Very busy\u2019 hurricane season forecast for Central Pacific - Moving to Hawaii Guide\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u2018Very busy\u2019 hurricane season forecast for Central Pacific - 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