{"id":342,"date":"2026-05-31T04:08:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-31T04:08:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=342"},"modified":"2026-05-31T04:08:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-31T04:08:10","slug":"u-s-militarys-economic-impact-in-hawaii-overstated-report-contends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=342","title":{"rendered":"U.S. military\u2019s economic impact in Hawaii overstated, report contends"},"content":{"rendered":"
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The U.S. military\u2019s economic benefit to Hawaii has been significantly overestimated, according to a new report from a consortium of groups and activists who contend that past studies failed to calculate the full impact of the armed forces in the islands.<\/p>\n

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The 199-page report, titled \u201cThe True Cost of the U.S. Military in Hawaii,\u201d says the military contributes $7.2 billion to Hawaii\u2019s economy and 6.4% to its GDP annually, about 30% lower than most recently touted by the state and Pentagon.<\/p>\n

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The report, compiled in response to military land lease negotiations in the islands, was prepared by a coalition of scholars and activists who said they wanted the public and policymakers to have as much information as possible before any decision-making regarding the state and military. It was published by Institute for Policy Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based progressive policy think tank.<\/p>\n

Co-authors include local community members with a history of vocal opposition to the military\u2019s presence and impact in Hawaii, including Jon Osorio, dean of the University of Hawaii at Manoa\u2019s Hawai\u2018inuiakea School of Hawaiian Knowledge; Wayne Tanaka, director of the Sierra Club of Hawaii; and Kyle Kajihiro, assistant professor of the UH Manoa Department of Ethnic Studies. Brown University\u2019s the Costs of War Project co-founder Neta C. Crawford and director of programs Heidi Peltier, as well as Institute for Policy Studies associate fellow Christine Ahn and researcher Omar Ocampo also contributed to the report.<\/p>\n

The report covered a multitude of topics, including the military\u2019s environmental and social impacts, and whether its strong presence in Hawaii is actually necessary for national security. In addition to the lower overall economic impact, the authors argue that:<\/p>\n

\u2014 The military paid $1 for 65-year Hawaii land leases, while the fair-market rent for the land totals up to $133.7 billion since 1964.<\/p>\n

\u2014 Military demand for off-base housing has inflated average rents on Oahu by 7.1% in 2024, costing nonmilitary renters an additional $234.8 million, or about $1,848 a household.<\/p>\n

\u2014 The cost to Hawaii of the Red Hill fuel disaster and remediation for PFAs, or so-called forever chemicals, at just three bases is \u201cconservatively estimated\u201d at $493 million.<\/p>\n

When reached for comment on the report\u2019s findings, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command officials said Hawaii is \u201cthe strategic cornerstone for U.S. security in the Indo-Pacific, where the Department of War maintains the essential capabilities necessary to defend the homeland and ensure a free and open region.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe respect the land and people of Hawaii and are committed to being good community members\u2014 protecting historic and sacred lands,\u201d command officials said. \u201cWe remain steadfast in our dedication to strengthening our partnerships with the people of Hawaii through mutual respect and collaboration. Protecting these islands from global threats ensures a safer future for our families and a thriving Hawaii.\u201d<\/p>\n

Much of the new report examined the military\u2019s economic impact on Hawaii. It questioned several findings of a Military and Community Relations Office report, published in January, which said the military\u2019s direct contributions to the economy and GDP were $10.2 billion and 9%, respectively, in 2023. MACRO is a federally funded state agency housed in Hawaii\u2019s Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism. A recent Department of Defense study reached similar conclusions as the MACRO report.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe economic benefits of the military\u2019s presence, in particular, have been dramatically overstated,\u201d said \u201cTrue Cost\u201d report co-author David Vine, a former professor of anthropology at American University in Washington, D.C., and a political anthropologist who has written extensively about the impacts of military bases.<\/p>\n

Vine, who calculated the report\u2019s estimates, said treating all military spending related to Hawaii as benefits to the local economy is the fundamental problem with the figures reported by the Pentagon and state.<\/p>\n

The vast majority of military employees in Hawaii are from out of state, Vine contends, and the $6.2 billion in military personnel spending that the state and federal governments reported includes retirement benefits, Social Security, Medicare and taxes that often leave the state. When those benefits are accounted for, Vine concluded that personnel spending is more likely around $3.7 billion or less. He also found additional benefits leaving the state when accounting for federal contracts awarded to out-of-state companies.<\/p>\n

Vine noted that his findings were in line with a 2023 report by DBEDT, which found that the military\u2019s contributions to the state\u2019s GDP from 2017 to 2022 hovered around 6%, while all federal government contributions were around 12%.<\/p>\n

But retired state economist Eugene Tian, who reviewed Vine\u2019s portion of the new report, noted the DBEDT 2023 study did not include the civilian workforce while the MACRO and Department of Defense study did, so the comparison may not be valid.<\/p>\n

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Still, Tian said, the \u201cTrue Cost\u201d report provided \u201ca good direction in estimating federal military impact in Hawaii,\u201d especially its estimation of state taxes and on-base purchases.<\/p>\n

Both Tian and Vine separately recognized that a comprehensive study on the military\u2019s impact in Hawaii is difficult because of lacking data. Tian added a comprehensive study should also include the impact of visitors attracted by the military including personnel family and friends and those traveling to the state for military business and exercises.<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, this is a good study trying to include estimates of all the leakages from the military spending,\u201d Tian said. \u201cThe concept is different from the methodology used by the federal government,\u201d where the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis \u201ctreats the military as an industry and includes spending on wages, equipment, and operations.\u201d<\/p>\n

MACRO Executive Director Laurie Moore told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser in an email that the January report examined the overall economic activity associated with defense spending in Hawaii, which included payroll, procurement, infrastructure investment and other spending.<\/p>\n

She said the agency\u2019s report is not an \u201capples-to-apples\u201d comparison to the Institute for Policy Studies report because it uses different methodologies, asked different economic questions, and applied an alternative framework that focused on how much spending circulates locally.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is important to recognize that the military\u2019s impact on Hawaii extends beyond any single number,\u201d Moore said. \u201cEconomic measures are one component, but they are only part of a broader picture. The military\u2019s presence intersects with workforce development, emergency response capabilities, infrastructure, education partnerships, environmental stewardship, community relationships and quality-of-life considerations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regarding the new report\u2019s finding on the impact on Oahu rental prices, Ocampo of the Institute for Policy Studies called the U.S. military \u201ca major, largely unacknowledged driver of Hawaii\u2019s housing crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYear after year, rents and home prices climb while wages don\u2019t, pushing out middle- and low-income families,\u201d Ocampo said. \u201cThe military\u2019s footprint is part of the problem \u2014 and reducing it is part of the fix.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moore said MACRO recognizes housing affordability as one of the state\u2019s most significant challenges, which is \u201cinfluenced by many interconnected factors.\u201d<\/p>\n

The \u201cTrue Cost\u201d report also argued that military land lease renegotiations should account for cleaning up the environment and restoring it, especially from PFAs. It suggests converting military bases into public infrastructure, cultural sites, farms or parks guided by Native Hawaiian principles.<\/p>\n

Moore agreed that contamination and remediation concerns deserve accountability but added that PFAs \u201clegacy contamination and long-term environmental impact\u201d involve several complex factors and can arise from various historic and current activities in private and public sectors.<\/p>\n

\u201cRecognizing that broader context does not lessen the responsibility of any entity, including the military, to address contamination where it is identified,\u201d Moore added. \u201cContinued transparency, remediation efforts and informed dialogue remain important in helping communities understand and address issues that affect Hawaii\u2019s people and the environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Osorio said he hopes the findings of the report can be considered in the negotiations on the future of military land leases, which are up in 2029.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs we go into this period of confrontation with U.S. Army and the Navy and with our own state officials, as well as federal officials,\u201d Osorio said, \u201cit\u2019s really important that the public be fully informed about the impact of that military presence here.\u201d<\/p>\n

The new report was cosponsored by Brown University\u2019s the Costs of War Project, \u2018Aina Aloha Economic Futures, \u2018Ilio\u2018ulaokalani Coalition, Sierra Club of Hawai\u2018i and the Transition Security Project.\n<\/p>\n

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