{"id":569,"date":"2026-06-13T11:34:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T11:34:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=569"},"modified":"2026-06-13T11:34:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T11:34:09","slug":"el-nino-officially-arrives-with-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=569","title":{"rendered":"El Nino officially arrives \u2014 with warning"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<p>As El Nino officially takes hold in the Pacific, the National Weather Service Thursday warned there\u2019s a likely chance it could rank \u201camong the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=567\">The Knicks, one win from NBA championship, really look like a team of destiny<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>As El Nino officially takes hold in the Pacific, the National Weather Service Thursday warned there\u2019s a likely chance it could rank \u201camong the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>El Nino cycles, characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and weak tradewinds, can cause changes in global weather patterns. In Hawaii, the cycle has been linked to more hurricane activity in the Central Pacific Basin in the summer and drought in the winter, which can lead to wildfire threats.<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>According to the latest update, published Thursday by NWS\u2019s Climate Prediction Center, El Nino conditions developed over the last month with ocean surface temperatures ranging between .7 and 2.1 degrees Celsius, or 1.26 to 3.78 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal. Wind anomalies were also present in the central equatorial Pacific, which further fueled the cycle\u2019s development.<\/p>\n<p>A \u201cvery strong\u201d El Nino \u2014 what some climatologists have dubbed a \u201csuper El Nino\u201d \u2014 has a 63% chance of occurring between November and January, right at the end of Hawaii\u2019s hurricane season. Hurricane season started June 1 and lasts through November.<\/p>\n<p>Latest forecasts estimate for this season that there\u2019s a 70% chance the Central Pacific Basin will see five to 13 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.<\/p>\n<p>National Weather Service meteorologist Derek Wroe said the El Nino cycle could mean the region sees a number of cyclones \u201con the higher range of that spectrum\u201d with possibly more storms at the end of the season when the cycle is expected to be the strongest. He added that exact forecasts and conditions are still uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe tend to have more tropical cyclone activity in El Nino years,\u201d he said. \u201cVery strong events bring those odds even higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He reiterated that stronger El Nino cycles do not necessarily mean the weather events, like hurricanes, will be stronger, but rather that they are more likely to occur.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=565\">Trump\u2019s move to reopen fishing at monuments draws mixed reaction<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The latest El Nino forecast shows the majority of Hawaii\u2019s hurricane season will likely be defined by moderate to strong El Nino conditions, with very strong conditions becoming more likely beginning in September.<\/p>\n<p>Very strong El Nino seasons occur when sea surface temperatures rise above 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.<\/p>\n<p>Between now and August, El Nino conditions have a 32% chance of being weak and 58% of being moderate. That changes swiftly in the three month span from July through September, with a weak El Nino at 11%, moderate at 46%, strong at 36%, and very strong at 6%.<\/p>\n<p>The odds shift from September through November, with the likelihood of a very strong El Nino jumping to 48%, and moderate decreases to 36%. Then, in the three month periods preceding both December and January, the likelihood for a very strong El Nino increase to 62% and 63% respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Wroe said Hawaii residents can expect a slightly wetter summer \u2014 though it will still be fairly dry.<\/p>\n<p>During winter, the island\u2019s usual wet season, a strong El Nino could cause drought conditions and possibly bring wildfire risk, especially during the following summer.<\/p>\n<p>He added that the high probability of very strong El Nino conditions is unique.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRight now there\u2019s a 63% chance that it could be a very strong El Nino,\u201d he said. \u201cA 63% chance of forecasting something \u2014 that doesn\u2019t happen very often. That\u2019s a very high probability.\u201d\n<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=563\">White Sox ride 7-run fifth past Shohei Ohtani-less Dodgers<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Nino officially arrives \u2014 with warning &#8211; Hawaii News | Hawaii Tribune-Herald<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":568,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El Nino officially arrives \u2014 with warning - Moving to Hawaii Guide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/movingtohawaiiguide.com\/?p=569\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Nino officially arrives \u2014 with warning - 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